The list
Published odds are the agency's own applicant and award counts, computed as tags drawn divided by applicants for that pool. Click a state to open its full draw data in the Quarry draw odds tool.
| # | Species | State | Unit / hunt | Pool | Published odds | Applicants | Tags drawn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mule Deer | Nevada | Any Open Unit | Resident | 0.007% (1 in 13,956) | 13,956 | 1 |
| 2 | Elk | Nevada | Any Open Unit Except Unit 091 | Nonresident | 0.008% (1 in 12,968) | 12,968 | 1 |
| 3 | Desert Bighorn Sheep | Nevada | Restricted units (see agency) | Nonresident | 0.010% (1 in 9,674) | 9,674 | 1 |
| 4 | Moose | Nevada | 061, 062, 064, 066 - 068, 071 -... | Resident | 0.011% (1 in 9,269) | 18,538 | 2 |
| 5 | California Bighorn Sheep | Nevada | Restricted units (see agency) | Nonresident | 0.012% (1 in 8,154) | 8,154 | 1 |
| 6 | Antelope | Nevada | Any Open Unit | Nonresident | 0.013% (1 in 7,726) | 7,726 | 1 |
| 7 | Mountain Goat | Nevada | 102 | Nonresident | 0.014% (1 in 7,315) | 7,315 | 1 |
| 8 | Rocky Mountain Bighorn Sheep | Utah | — | Nonresident | 0.018% (1 in 5,536) | 5,536 | 1 |
| 9 | Mule Deer | Nevada | Any Open Unit | Nonresident | 0.020% (1 in 5,049) | 5,049 | 1 |
| 10 | Mountain Goat | Nevada | 102 | Nonresident | 0.020% (1 in 4,959) | 4,959 | 1 |
| 11 | Desert Bighorn Sheep | Nevada | 263 | Nonresident | 0.020% (1 in 4,942) | 4,942 | 1 |
| 12 | California Bighorn Sheep | Nevada | 068 | Nonresident | 0.021% (1 in 4,719) | 4,719 | 1 |
| 13 | California Bighorn Sheep | Nevada | 035 - Jacksons | Nonresident | 0.022% (1 in 4,580) | 4,580 | 1 |
| 14 | Elk | Wisconsin | Clam Lake / Northern Elk Zone | All applicants | 0.023% (1 in 4,440) | 17,761 | 4 |
| 15 | Pronghorn | Arizona | — | Nonresident | 0.024% (1 in 4,115) | 4,115 | 1 |
| 16 | Bighorn Sheep | South Dakota | Black Hills | Resident | 0.026% (1 in 3,824) | 3,824 | 1 |
| 17 | Bighorn Sheep | Montana | 680-20 | Nonresident | 0.028% (1 in 3,559) | 3,559 | 1 |
| 18 | Mule Deer | Texas | Yoakum Dunes WMA | All applicants | 0.028% (1 in 3,547) | 3,547 | 1 |
| 19 | Elk | Oklahoma | Cookson WMA | All applicants | 0.029% (1 in 3,478) | 3,478 | 1 |
| 20 | Sheep | Alaska | — | Combined | 0.030% (1 in 3,359) | 3,359 | 1 |
| 21 | Elk | Arizona | — | Nonresident | 0.031% (1 in 3,205) | 3,205 | 1 |
| 22 | Elk | Arizona | — | Nonresident | 0.032% (1 in 3,167) | 3,167 | 1 |
| 23 | Rocky Bighorn Sheep | Nevada | 102 | Resident | 0.033% (1 in 3,064) | 6,129 | 2 |
| 24 | Mountain Goat | Utah | — | Nonresident | 0.033% (1 in 3,030) | 3,030 | 1 |
| 25 | Desert Bighorn Sheep | Nevada | Restricted units (see agency) | Resident | 0.033% (1 in 3,029) | 3,029 | 1 |
Why Nevada owns this list
Nevada holds 14 of the 25 slots, and it is structural, not accidental. Nevada sells statewide "any open unit" tags for mule deer, elk, and antelope — one or two tags, every hunter in the state eligible, five-figure applicant pools. Its bighorn units do the same at smaller scale: a single nonresident ram tag against 3,000–10,000 applicants. Because Nevada runs a bonus-point draw rather than a preference queue, no amount of waiting guarantees the tag — which keeps applicant pools enormous.
Footnotes and near-misses
Three entries worth extra context, all from the same published data:
- Kentucky nonresident bull elk — KDFWR publishes the odds (0.067%, 1 in 1,487) but not applicant counts, so it fails our 100-applicant screen on a technicality. By its published ratio it would rank around 64th of the 6,601 pools we can rank.
- Wisconsin's Clam Lake elk hunt — #14 above — is the toughest draw east of the Mississippi with published applicant counts: 4 tags, 17,761 applicants.
- Michigan's statewide elk lottery — the most-applied-for hunt in the entire dataset (67,422 applications for 200 licenses, 0.3% overall). Its Any-Elk pool draws at 0.15% — long odds, but well short of this list's 0.033% cutoff.
How to read these odds
These are last completed cycle's published results (draw years 2024–2026, most 2025), not a forecast. Three honest caveats: first, odds this small are lottery odds — the difference between 1 in 5,000 and 1 in 10,000 is not actionable. Second, several states weight the draw by bonus or preference points, so your personal odds differ from the pool average printed here. Third, pool definitions differ by state (resident versus nonresident, first choice versus all choices); each row states which pool it is. Every underlying number, with its source document and date, is in the draw odds tool.
Methodology
Computed from the per-state data files behind the Quarry draw odds tool, which are compiled from official state agency draw reports and spot-verified against the source documents. Coverage: 30 states, 10,669 draw hunts, 19,133 applicant pools; the other 20 states do not publish per-hunt draw statistics. Ranking rule: lowest published odds with at least 100 applicants and at least one tag awarded in that pool. Point-only application codes, canceled hunts, and zero-quota pools are excluded. Published agency data only — nothing modeled or projected. Full tables, sleeper hunts, and state rankings are in The 2026 Western draw report.