The dataset, by the numbers
| Measure | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| States with published per-hunt draw data | 30 | The other 20 states publish no usable per-hunt draw statistics |
| Draw hunts (tag lotteries) covered | 10,669 | Point-only application codes and zero-quota hunts excluded |
| Applicant pools (resident, nonresident, etc.) | 19,133 | 17,686 of them have a computable published odds figure |
| Applications recorded | 5,112,344 | Across the 10,342 hunts where agencies publish applicant counts |
| Tags / permits awarded | 812,390 | Across the 10,444 hunts where agencies publish awarded counts |
| Overall draw success rate | 16.2% | 779,577 awarded / 4,818,433 applications on the 10,125 hunts publishing both |
How hard is the average draw?
There is no average draw. Published odds split into two worlds: trophy-species lotteries where odds are a fraction of a percent, and management hunts (antlerless deer, depredation, leftover pools) where nearly everyone draws. Of the 17,686 applicant pools with a computable published odds figure:
| Published draw odds | Applicant pools | Share |
|---|---|---|
| under 1% | 3,196 | 18% |
| 1-5% | 2,496 | 14% |
| 5-10% | 1,674 | 9% |
| 10-25% | 2,691 | 15% |
| 25-50% | 2,155 | 12% |
| 50-99% | 2,124 | 12% |
| 100% | 3,350 | 19% |
The toughest draws in America
Ranked by lowest published odds, screened to pools with at least 100 applicants and at least one tag actually awarded, so tiny-quota flukes don't clutter the list. Nevada dominates — its any-open-unit "dream tag" style hunts put a single tag in front of five-figure applicant pools. The full 25-tag list is here.
| # | Species | State | Unit / hunt | Pool | Published odds | Applicants | Tags drawn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mule Deer | Nevada | Any Open Unit | Resident | 0.007% (1 in 13,956) | 13,956 | 1 |
| 2 | Elk | Nevada | Any Open Unit Except Unit 091 | Nonresident | 0.008% (1 in 12,968) | 12,968 | 1 |
| 3 | Desert Bighorn Sheep | Nevada | Restricted units (see agency) | Nonresident | 0.010% (1 in 9,674) | 9,674 | 1 |
| 4 | Moose | Nevada | 061, 062, 064, 066 - 068, 071 -... | Resident | 0.011% (1 in 9,269) | 18,538 | 2 |
| 5 | California Bighorn Sheep | Nevada | Restricted units (see agency) | Nonresident | 0.012% (1 in 8,154) | 8,154 | 1 |
| 6 | Antelope | Nevada | Any Open Unit | Nonresident | 0.013% (1 in 7,726) | 7,726 | 1 |
| 7 | Mountain Goat | Nevada | 102 | Nonresident | 0.014% (1 in 7,315) | 7,315 | 1 |
| 8 | Rocky Mountain Bighorn Sheep | Utah | — | Nonresident | 0.018% (1 in 5,536) | 5,536 | 1 |
| 9 | Mule Deer | Nevada | Any Open Unit | Nonresident | 0.020% (1 in 5,049) | 5,049 | 1 |
| 10 | Mountain Goat | Nevada | 102 | Nonresident | 0.020% (1 in 4,959) | 4,959 | 1 |
Kentucky belongs in this conversation but not in this table: KDFWR publishes odds ratios only (nonresident bull elk: 0.067%, or 1 in 1,487 — and 1 in 159 for residents) without applicant counts, so it fails the 100-applicant screen we apply to every ranked row.
The best-odds sleeper hunts
The other end of the spectrum: big-game pools with published odds above 50% and at least 25 tags awarded, sorted by tag count. "Sleeper" means you will very likely draw — many of these are antlerless, cow, or general-unit tags, not trophy hunts. A few pools awarded more tags than they had applicants (undersubscribed); those show as 100%.
| Species | State | Unit / hunt | Pool | Odds | Tags drawn | Applicants |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deer | California | — | Preference | 100% | 7,335 | 5,965 |
| Pronghorn | Montana | 007-20 | Resident | 87% | 5,777 | 6,624 |
| Spring Bear | Oregon | — | Resident | 89% | 4,598 | 5,166 |
| Whitetail Deer | Kansas | Unit 11 | Nonresident | 63% | 3,524 | 5,572 |
| Elk | Montana | 270-45 (First Choice Only) | Resident | 100% | 3,305 | 3,305 |
| Pronghorn | Montana | 007-21 | Resident | 75% | 3,142 | 4,211 |
| Deer | California | — | Preference | 100% | 2,700 | 2,139 |
| Deer | South Dakota | Black Hills | Resident | 51% | 2,684 | 5,291 |
| Deer | Utah | — | Resident | 85% | 2,593 | 3,063 |
| Buck Deer | Oregon | — | Resident | 97% | 2,495 | 2,581 |
| Deer | California | — | Preference | 63% | 2,439 | 3,857 |
| Deer | South Dakota | — | Nonresident | 91% | 2,200 | 2,415 |
| Whitetail Deer | Kansas | Unit 12 | Nonresident | 63% | 2,194 | 3,506 |
| Deer | Utah | — | Resident | 97% | 2,129 | 2,204 |
| Buck Deer | Oregon | — | Resident | 66% | 2,077 | 3,150 |
The most-applied-for hunts
The biggest single applicant pools in the dataset. Michigan's statewide elk lottery tops the list — 67,422 applications across its two license types for 200 licenses. Note the pattern: the hunts everyone applies for are exactly the ones with near-zero odds.
| Species | State | Unit / hunt | Applications | Tags drawn | Overall odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elk | Michigan | Statewide (chances lottery) | 67,422 | 200 | 0.30% |
| Bison | Alaska | — | 33,276 | 30 | 0.090% |
| Bighorn Sheep | North Dakota | Statewide | 21,221 | 8 | 0.038% |
| Moose | Nevada | 061, 062, 064, 066 - 068, 071 -... | 18,538 | 2 | 0.011% |
| Elk | Wisconsin | Clam Lake / Northern Elk Zone | 17,761 | 4 | 0.023% |
| Caribou | Alaska | — | 15,550 | 149 | 0.96% |
| Deer | North Dakota | MUZ | 14,792 | 398 | 2.7% |
| Deer | Wyoming | Hunt Area 171 | 14,053 | 6,327 | 45% |
| Mule Deer | Nevada | Any Open Unit | 13,956 | 1 | 0.007% |
| Elk | Nevada | Any Open Unit Except Unit 091 | 12,968 | 1 | 0.008% |
States ranked: where the draw is hardest
All 30 covered states, ranked from toughest to easiest by the average published odds across each state's applicant pools (unweighted — every pool counts once). The mean and the median tell you different things: Alaska's mean is pulled up by easy antlerless hunts while its median hunt draws at about 2%. The success-rate column is total tags awarded divided by total applications, shown only where the state publishes applicant counts for most hunts. Click any state to open it in the draw odds tool.
| # | State | Draw year | Hunts | Mean odds | Median odds | Success rate | Applications |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kentucky | 2025 | 4 | 0.76% | 0.54% | — | — |
| 2 | Texas | 2025-2026 | 62 | 1.3% | 0.67% | 1% | 155,482 |
| 3 | Ohio | 2025 | 166 | 6.2% | 3.3% | 3% | 140,735 |
| 4 | California | 2025 | 180 | 11% | 1.4% | 22% | 120,124 |
| 5 | Georgia | 2025 | 139 | 12% | 8.0% | 11% | 118,132 |
| 6 | Mississippi | 2025 | 288 | 12% | 7.7% | 5% | 78,415 |
| 7 | Arizona | 2026 | 645 | 12% | 3.6% | 7% | 687,978 |
| 8 | Florida | 2024 | 575 | 13% | 8.8% | 9% | 207,291 |
| 9 | New Mexico | 2025 | 322 | 15% | 6.8% | 8% | 294,230 |
| 10 | Alaska | 2025 | 361 | 15% | 2.2% | 2% | 364,911 |
| 11 | Oklahoma | 2024-25 | 158 | 16% | 7.0% | 4% | 129,118 |
| 12 | Wyoming | 2026 | 406 | 24% | 10% | 16% | 97,417 |
| 13 | Indiana | 2025 | 171 | 24% | 21% | 18% | 21,932 |
| 14 | Nevada | 2025 | 757 | 25% | 13% | 6% | 365,767 |
| 15 | Idaho | 2025 | 535 | 28% | 11% | 19% | 213,239 |
| 16 | Utah | 2025 | 948 | 28% | 12% | 17% | 423,423 |
| 17 | Louisiana | 2025 | 55 | 29% | 26% | — | 212 |
| 18 | North Dakota | 2025 | 223 | 29% | 5.9% | 13% | 178,678 |
| 19 | Michigan | 2026 | 23 | 29% | 26% | 7% | 94,734 |
| 20 | Wisconsin | 2024 | 8 | 35% | 34% | 19% | 59,244 |
| 21 | Montana | 2026 | 300 | 35% | 14% | 15% | 263,997 |
| 22 | Kansas | 2025 | 41 | 42% | 44% | 54% | 42,753 |
| 23 | Nebraska | 2025 | 95 | 43% | 26% | 32% | 23,119 |
| 24 | Missouri | 2025-2026 | 140 | 46% | 36% | 26% | 23,932 |
| 25 | Oregon | 2025 | 802 | 48% | 39% | 37% | 527,884 |
| 26 | South Dakota | 2025 | 417 | 50% | 48% | 31% | 152,650 |
| 27 | Colorado | 2026 | 2,743 | 52% | 49% | 61% | 301,983 |
| 28 | Iowa | 2025 | 20 | 62% | 63% | 61% | 9,729 |
| 29 | Arkansas | 2024-25 | 70 | 67% | 72% | 66% | 15,235 |
| 30 | Massachusetts | 2025 | 15 | 92% | 100% | — | — |
Kentucky ranks toughest but is a special case: it runs a single statewide elk lottery, so its average is four brutally hard hunts with nothing easy to dilute them. Texas is next — its public-land drawn hunts routinely stack thousands of applicants against single-digit quotas. Among the Western states, California and Arizona run the toughest average draws; Colorado's enormous hunt list and South Dakota's resident-friendly quotas make them the most forgiving.
What everyone is applying for
Applications by species family, with the median hunt's overall odds. The once-in-a-lifetime species tell the story: the median sheep hunt draws at about 1%, the median moose hunt at about 3%, and bison and muskox are effectively raffles.
| Species | Hunts | Applications | Tags drawn | Median hunt odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deer (all) | 4,113 | 1,728,285 | 460,617 | 32% |
| Elk | 3,032 | 1,290,658 | 217,695 | 29% |
| Pronghorn / antelope | 1,220 | 665,606 | 59,019 | 12% |
| Sheep (bighorn and Dall) | 478 | 415,126 | 2,405 | 1.1% |
| Moose | 482 | 297,618 | 4,629 | 2.9% |
| Mountain goat | 176 | 149,674 | 1,413 | 1.8% |
| Turkey | 524 | 134,271 | 10,843 | 10% |
| Other (waterfowl, hog, small game) | 205 | 134,207 | 10,421 | 6.5% |
| Bear | 330 | 125,144 | 42,275 | 46% |
| Bison | 34 | 83,062 | 256 | 0.58% |
| Caribou | 9 | 43,257 | 630 | 0.96% |
| Alligator | 62 | 25,661 | 2,135 | 4.1% |
| Muskox | 4 | 19,775 | 52 | 0.36% |
Methodology and honest limits
Every number above is computed from the same per-state data files that power the Quarry draw odds tool, each compiled from that state agency's own published draw reports and spot-verified against the source documents. Specifics:
- Coverage: 30 states, 10,669 draw hunts, 19,133 applicant pools. The covered states are Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. The remaining 20 states either publish no per-hunt draw statistics at all or publish only partial summaries that do not support a verifiable odds figure.
- Published agency data only. This reflects what each agency chose to publish about its most recent draw — draw years 2024 through 2026, most of them 2025. Where an agency publishes applicant and awarded counts, odds are computed as awarded divided by applicants; where it publishes only an odds figure (Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts), that figure is used as printed and applicant counts show as not published. Nothing here is modeled, projected, or estimated.
- What we excluded. Point-only application codes (where "100% success" just means a preference point was banked, not a tag issued), canceled and zero-quota hunts, and secondary re-issue drawings. Cumulative point-tier rows (0+/1+/2+) are collapsed so nobody is counted twice; California's random-remainder pools are not double-counted against its preference pools.
- Applications are not unique people. One hunter can file applications in several states and several species draws, and some states count each choice or chance separately. Totals are applications as agencies report them, not a census of hunters.
- Odds are last cycle's, not next cycle's. Quotas shift and points creep every year. Treat every figure as a well-sourced starting point and confirm current-year rules on the agency site before you spend an application fee.
Compiled July 9, 2026 by Whetstone Tools from official state agency draw reports; each state's source documents are listed and dated inside the draw odds tool. See also: the 25 hardest tags to draw in 2026 and Quarry hunting seasons & regs.